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Portugal T20 Tri-Series · 2026 · Men
7 Apr 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 25%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 9% to 96% during the match (Norway: 4% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Khizer Ahmedlbw · Dawood Ahmadzai5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 28 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 127.27 |
| D Abeyrathnacaught · Virk Ali · Zaheer Zahiri 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Virk Ali · b Zaheer Zahiri | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 114.29 |
| Chaudhary Akramrun out · Zada Sher · Noman Amjad 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zada Sher | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Junaid Mehmoodlbw · Zada Sher 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zada Sher | 10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Sher Sahakcaught and bowled · Mohammad Khan Rafah 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 36 |
| 29 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 124.14 |
| Faisal Razacaught · Usman Khan · Jamshid Nasiri 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Jamshid Nasiri | 17 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 85.00 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Rahimicaught · L Canessane · Mohammad Khan Rafah 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L Canessane · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Syed Jawad Haidercaught and bowled · Usman Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Usman Khan | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Vinay Ravicaught · Noman Amjad · Mohammad Khan Rafah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noman Amjad · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Qamar Mushtaquenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| M Shahbaz Buttnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noman Amjad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaheer Zahiri0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 2 | 1 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Zada Sher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamshid Nasiri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Khan Rafah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (D Abeyrathna, 3.1) · 2-36 (Chaudhary Akram, 4.4) · 3-41 (Khizer Ahmed, 6.1) · 4-60 (Junaid Mehmood, 9.2) · 5-86 (Faisal Raza, 13.5) · 6-112 (Ibrahim Rahimi, 17.3) · 7-123 (Syed Jawad Haider, 19.0) · 8-123 (Sher Sahak, 19.1) · 9-124 (Vinay Ravi, 19.4)
Recorded target: 134 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 36/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 43/3 |
| 8 | 12 | 55/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 58/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 60/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 65/4 |
| 12 | 10 | 75/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 14 | 13 | 90/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 96/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 102/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 109/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 114/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 123/7 |
| 20 | 3 | 126/9 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
