Adelaide StrikersversusPerth Scorchers

18 Jan 2025 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 5 wickets

Adelaide Strikers19.1 overs161/10 Perth Scorchers16.2 overs163/5 Perth Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 40%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 75% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 25% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: JP Behrendorff to OJ Pope, OJ Pope out. Perth Scorchers up from 43% to 55%.
10.2: M Beardman to HJ Manenti, HJ Manenti out. Perth Scorchers up from 45% to 59%.
2nd inns 7.3: DJM Short to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. Adelaide Strikers up from 22% to 34%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers161/10 Perth Scorchers163/5

Innings 1