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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
5 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Saudi Arabia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Saudi Arabia started on 68%; Saudi Arabia batted first.
Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anjar Tadaruscaught · Manan Ali · Hisham Sheikh 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Manan Ali · b Hisham Sheikh | 10 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 47.62 |
| PR Survecaught · Ishtiaq Ahmad · Atif-Ur-Rehman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishtiaq Ahmad · b Atif-Ur-Rehman | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| F Banunaekbowled · Shahzaib 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shahzaib | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gede Artabowled · Hisham Sheikh 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hisham Sheikh | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
| Kadek Gamantikabowled · Abdul Waheed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abdul Waheed | 7 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 41.18 |
| caught · Manan Ali · b Hisham Sheikh |
| 27 |
| 19 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 142.11 |
| Ahmad Ramdonibowled · Shahzaib 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shahzaib | 12 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Gede Priandanabowled · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ishtiaq Ahmad | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Ketut Artawannot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Danilson Hawoebowled · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ishtiaq Ahmad | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Dhanesh Shettynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ishtiaq Ahmad1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Atif-Ur-Rehman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Shahzaib1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 4 | 0 |
| Hisham Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdul Waheed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (PR Surve, 2.0) · 2-16 (F Banunaek, 5.0) · 3-16 (Anjar Tadarus, 5.1) · 4-26 (Kadek Gamantika, 9.4) · 5-59 (Gede Arta, 13.2) · 6-71 (KC Ramamoorthy, 15.1) · 7-88 (Ahmad Ramdoni, 17.4) · 8-95 (Gede Priandana, 18.2) · 9-95 (Danilson Hawoe, 18.5)
Recorded target: 186 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 16/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 20/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 20/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 23/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 25/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 31/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 37/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 48/4 |
| 13 | 11 | 59/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 60/5 |
| 15 | 11 | 71/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 79/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 83/6 |
| 18 | 10 | 93/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 96/9 |
| 20 | 7 | 103/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.