SerbiaversusGibraltar

12 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Gibraltar won by 2 wickets

Serbia20.0 overs139/8 Gibraltar19.2 overs143/8 Koge Cricket Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Gibraltar more likely to win

32%Serbia68%Gibraltar

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Gibraltar won 4 and Serbia won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Gibraltar rate stronger than Serbia (1,335 vs 1,295 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Serbia started on 29%; Serbia batted first.

Serbia’s chance of winning (%) · Gibraltar is the rest

Serbia's chances ranged from 2% to 56% during the match (Gibraltar: 44% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.4: M Janicijevic to L Bruce, IDM Latin out. Serbia up from 17% to 32%.
2nd inns 15.5: M Janicijevic to JA Fitzgerald, JA Fitzgerald out. Serbia up from 14% to 30%.
2nd inns 15.6: M Janicijevic to K Mirpuri, 2 runs to K Mirpuri. Gibraltar up from 70% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Serbia139/8 Gibraltar143/8

Innings 2

Gibraltar

143/819.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Gibraltar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Anthony Hillmancaught and bowled · MV Pavlovic 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b MV Pavlovic	25	17	4	0	147.06
L Brucecaught · A Dizija · P Nedeljkovic 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · A Dizija · b P Nedeljkovic	42	38	3	1	110.53
KJ Stagnocaught · WAE Burton · Luka Woods 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · WAE Burton · b Luka Woods	12	11	2	0	109.09
KJ Ferrarylbw · Luka Woods 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Luka Woods	0	1	0	0	0.00
C Pylelbw · Luka Woods 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Luka Woods	0	1	0	0	0.00
IDM Latinrun out · A Dizija, MV Pavlovic · M Janicijevic1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
P Nedeljkovic0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	4	1
MV Pavlovic0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	5	0
V Zimonjic0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	2	0
Luka Woods0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0	0
M Janicijevic0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	19	1	5.70	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	4	20/0
3	15	35/0
4	11	46/1
5	6	52/1
6	13	65/1
7	6	71/1
8	6	77/4
9	3	80/4
10	6	86/4
11	3	89/4
12	3	92/4
13	2	94/5
14	11	105/5
15	8	113/6
16	8	121/7
17	7	128/7
18	5	133/7
19	4	137/8
20	6	143/8

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