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England Women tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Women
4 Dec 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 62%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 65% during the match (South Africa: 35% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtnot out7 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 59* | 114 | 7 | 0 | 51.75 |
| Tazmin Britslbw · Lauren Bell 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lauren Bell | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 185.71 |
| Suné Luuslbw · Charlie Dean 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charlie Dean | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 36.84 |
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Tammy Beaumont · Lauren Filer 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tammy Beaumont · b Lauren Filer | 27 | 40 | 4 | 0 | 67.50 |
 Marizanne Kappbowled · Nat Sciver-Brunt3 fours · 1 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Nat Sciver-Brunt |
| 22 |
| 22 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 100.00 |
| Nadine de Klerknot out 11 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 48* | 28 | 11 | 0 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 1 | 49 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 4.86 | 3 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 2.90 | 5 | 0 |
1-19 (Tazmin Brits, 2.1) · 2-46 (Suné Luus, 10.5) · 3-105 (Annerie Dercksen, 24.3) · 4-136 (Marizanne Kapp, 31.5)
Recorded target: 187 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 40/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 46/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 53/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 59/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 67/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 79/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 90/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 93/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 102/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 106/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 115/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 125/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 125/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 131/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 132/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 135/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 136/4 |
| 33 | 13 | 149/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 156/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 157/4 |
| 36 | 10 | 167/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 172/4 |
| 38 | 9 | 181/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 189/4 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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