Melbourne RenegadesversusSydney Sixers

16 Dec 2024 · T20

Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 5 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs169/7 Sydney Sixers18.3 overs172/5 Sydney Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 34%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.4: KW Richardson to J Edwards, J Edwards out. Melbourne Renegades up from 23% to 34%.
2nd inns 12.3: Hassan Khan to JC Silk, JC Silk out. Melbourne Renegades up from 30% to 44%.
2nd inns 14.2: W Sutherland to JA Davies, JA Davies out. Melbourne Renegades up from 18% to 30%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades169/7 Sydney Sixers172/5

Innings 1