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Scotland T20 Tri-Series · 2025 · Men
15 Jun 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 57%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittcaught · Safyaan Sharif · Michael Leask 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Safyaan Sharif · b Michael Leask | 36 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 120.00 |
| Max O'Dowdbowled · Jasper John Davidson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasper John Davidson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetlbw · Safyaan Sharif1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Safyaan Sharif | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
| Scott Edwardsrun out · Safyaan Sharif · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Safyaan Sharif | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Teja Nidamanurucaught · Finlay McCreath · Jack Jarvis 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
| 16 |
| 16 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Noah Croeslbw · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mark Watt | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Saqib Zulfiqarcaught · Brandon McMullen · Mark Watt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Mark Watt | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwecaught · Michael Leask · Jack Jarvis0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Leask · b Jack Jarvis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinrun out · Michael Leask · Michael Leask 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Michael Leask | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttcaught · Michael Leask · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Leask · b Safyaan Sharif | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
| Paul van Meekerennot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 20* | 11 | 2 | 1 | 181.82 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McMullen0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Jasper John Davidson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Max O'Dowd, 1.3) · 2-23 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 2.2) · 3-36 (Scott Edwards, 4.3) · 4-57 (Michael Levitt, 8.1) · 5-72 (Noah Croes, 10.0) · 6-78 (Teja Nidamanuru, 11.1) · 7-81 (Roelof van der Merwe, 11.4) · 8-88 (Saqib Zulfiqar, 13.1) · 9-93 (Kyle Klein, 14.4) · 10-121 (Aryan Dutt, 18.1)
Recorded target: 161 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 29/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 36/3 |
| 6 | 12 | 48/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 52/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 62/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 72/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 78/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 82/7 |
| 13 | 6 | 88/7 |
| 14 | 3 | 91/8 |
| 15 | 3 | 94/9 |
| 16 | 10 | 104/9 |
| 17 | 6 | 110/9 |
| 18 | 11 | 121/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 121/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
