PakistanversusWest Indies

2 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

West Indies won by 2 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs133/9 West Indies20.0 overs135/8 Central Broward Regional Park Stadium Turf Ground, Lauderhill ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

78%Pakistan22%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than West Indies (1,556 vs 1,441 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and West Indies won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 79%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 16% to 93% during the match (West Indies: 7% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.3: Hasan Ali to R Shepherd, six by R Shepherd. West Indies up from 36% to 67%.
2nd inns 19.2: Shaheen Shah Afridi to R Shepherd, R Shepherd out. Pakistan up from 41% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.6: Shaheen Shah Afridi to JO Holder, four by JO Holder. West Indies up from 30% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan133/9 West Indies135/8

Innings 1

Pakistan

133/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saim Ayubcaught · J Andrew · Jason Holder 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Andrew · b Jason Holder	7	9	1	0	77.78
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Jason Holder	3	7	0	0	42.86
Fakhar Zamancaught · Romario Shepherd · Roston Chase 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Romario Shepherd · b Roston Chase	20	19	2	0	105.26
Mohammad Hariscaught · Jason Holder · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jason Holder · b Akeal Hosein	4	6	0	0	66.67
Salman Ali Aghalbw · Gudakesh Motie 3 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	1
Jason Holder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	4	4.75	0
Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	2	9.75	1
Roston Chase0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	2
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	6	9/1
3	6	15/1
4	4	19/2
5	4	23/3
6	1	24/3
7	5	29/3
8	6	35/3
9	18	53/3
10	4	57/4
11	3	60/4
12	13	73/4
13	4	77/4
14	14	91/4
15	19	110/4
16	5	115/5
17	3	118/7
18	7	125/7
19	6	131/8
20	2	133/9

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