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Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
6 Feb 2025 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Matthew Kuhnemann 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Alex Carey · Matthew Kuhnemann1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 14 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught · Beau Webster · Nathan Lyon1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beau Webster · b Nathan Lyon | 12 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 30.00 |
 |
| caught · Beau Webster · b Nathan Lyon |
| 76 |
| 149 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 51.01 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Usman Khawaja · Nathan Lyon 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khawaja · b Nathan Lyon | 14 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Steve Smith · Matthew Kuhnemann 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 23 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Steve Smith · Nathan Lyon 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon | 50 | 54 | 5 | 1 | 92.59 |
|---|
| Ramesh Mendiscaught · Travis Head · Beau Webster 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Beau Webster | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Steve Smith · Matthew Kuhnemann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumarabowled · Beau Webster 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Beau Webster | 9 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nishan Peirisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Kuhnemann5 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 23.0 | 5 | 63 | 4 | 2.74 | 0 | 1 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 28.0 | 3 | 84 | 4 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Webster0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2.77 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Pathum Nissanka, 1.3) · 2-33 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 12.1) · 3-39 (Dinesh Chandimal, 13.4) · 4-81 (Kamindu Mendis, 25.4) · 5-128 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 39.5) · 6-198 (Angelo Mathews, 57.1) · 7-199 (Ramesh Mendis, 58.5) · 8-211 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 62.1) · 9-217 (Kusal Mendis, 63.4) · 10-231 (Lahiru Kumara, 68.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 30/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 32/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 33/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 37/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 39/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 47/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 49/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 53/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 59/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 60/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 65/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 72/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 82/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 82/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 83/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 89/4 |
| 30 | 0 | 89/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 92/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 93/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 98/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 104/4 |
| 36 | 9 | 113/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 118/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 125/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 127/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 128/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 134/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 135/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 137/5 |
| 44 | 2 | 139/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 143/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 147/5 |
| 47 | 0 | 147/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 150/5 |
| 49 | 14 | 164/5 |
| 50 | 4 | 168/5 |
| 51 | 5 | 173/5 |
| 52 | 5 | 178/5 |
| 53 | 4 | 182/5 |
| 54 | 5 | 187/5 |
| 55 | 1 | 188/5 |
| 56 | 3 | 191/5 |
| 57 | 7 | 198/5 |
| 58 | 0 | 198/6 |
| 59 | 1 | 199/7 |
| 60 | 3 | 202/7 |
| 61 | 5 | 207/7 |
| 62 | 4 | 211/7 |
| 63 | 4 | 215/8 |
| 64 | 2 | 217/9 |
| 65 | 7 | 224/9 |
| 66 | 1 | 225/9 |
| 67 | 4 | 229/9 |
| 68 | 2 | 231/9 |
| 69 | 0 | 231/10 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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