GermanyversusJersey

Germany more likely to win

Why

• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 2 and Jersey won 0
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Germany rate stronger than Jersey (1,399 vs 1,343 on our results rating)
• Germany are playing at home in Germany

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Germany started on 70%; Germany batted first.

Germany's chances ranged from 1% to 84% during the match (Jersey: 17% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 4.1: JE Ronalds to R Bowley, R Bowley out. Germany up from 50% to 72%.
2. 2nd inns 7.2: A Doddaballapur to T Smith, T Smith out. Germany up from 56% to 83%.
3. 2nd inns 12.1: JE Ronalds to CM Greechan, CM Greechan out. Germany up from 22% to 42%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.