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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
8 Feb 2026 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 65%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paul Stirlingbowled · Mahesh Theekshana1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
| Ross Adairbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 34 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 147.83 |
 Harry Tectorcaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Wanindu Hasaranga1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 40 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 117.65 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Kamil Mishara · Dunith Wellalage 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamil Mishara · b Dunith Wellalage | 21 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 116.67 |
| caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Wanindu Hasaranga |
| 13 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 118.18 |
| Ben Calitzstumped · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Gareth Delanycaught · Dushmantha Chameera · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dushmantha Chameera · b Mahesh Theekshana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 George Dockrellcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Mark Adaircaught · Dasun Shanaka · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Dushmantha Chameera | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Barry McCarthynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Matthew Humphreysbowled · Matheesha Pathirana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matheesha Pathirana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 9.18 | 1 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Paul Stirling, 3.2) · 2-56 (Ross Adair, 8.0) · 3-105 (Lorcan Tucker, 14.2) · 4-113 (Harry Tector, 15.1) · 5-120 (Ben Calitz, 16.3) · 6-120 (Gareth Delany, 16.4) · 7-126 (Curtis Campher, 17.4) · 8-137 (Mark Adair, 19.0) · 9-143 (George Dockrell, 19.3) · 10-143 (Matthew Humphreys, 19.5)
Recorded target: 164 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 45/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 62/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 72/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 78/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 94/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 104/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 113/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 117/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 121/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 128/7 |
| 19 | 9 | 137/8 |
| 20 | 6 | 143/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
