PakistanversusSouth Africa

20 Sept 2024 · T20

Multan Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 8 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs153/5 South Africa18.3 overs154/2 Multan Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Pakistan49%South Africa

Why

Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Pakistan (1,507 vs 1,478 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 49%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (South Africa: 23% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.4: Tuba Hassan to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Pakistan up from 26% to 36%.
2nd inns 14.4: Sadia Iqbal to A Dercksen, six by A Dercksen. South Africa up from 69% to 81%.
2nd inns 15.6: Nida Dar to A Dercksen, six by A Dercksen. South Africa up from 86% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.