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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
India tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
7 Aug 2024 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 32%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 70%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Kusal Mendis · Dunith Wellalage6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 35 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 175.00 |
 Shubman Gillbowled · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
 Virat Kohlilbw · Dunith Wellalage4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dunith Wellalage | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 111.11 |
 Rishabh Pantstumped · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana1 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana |
| 6 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
 Shreyas Iyerlbw · Dunith Wellalage2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dunith Wellalage | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Axar Patelbowled · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Riyan Paragbowled · Jeffrey Vandersay 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 115.38 |
|---|
 Shivam Dubelbw · Jeffrey Vandersay1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarcaught · Jeffrey Vandersay · Mahesh Theekshana2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Jeffrey Vandersay · b Mahesh Theekshana | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Kuldeep Yadavlbw · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dunith Wellalage | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 5.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 5.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 0 | 27 | 5 | 5.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Shubman Gill, 4.3) · 2-53 (Rohit Sharma, 7.1) · 3-63 (Rishabh Pant, 9.2) · 4-71 (Virat Kohli, 10.5) · 5-73 (Axar Patel, 12.1) · 6-82 (Shreyas Iyer, 12.5) · 7-100 (Riyan Parag, 16.0) · 8-101 (Shivam Dube, 17.3) · 9-138 (Washington Sundar, 26.0) · 10-138 (Kuldeep Yadav, 26.1)
Recorded target: 249 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 18 | 35/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 53/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 67/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 72/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 73/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 82/6 |
| 14 | 10 | 92/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 96/6 |
| 16 | 4 | 100/7 |
| 17 | 1 | 101/7 |
| 18 | 1 | 102/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 107/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 109/8 |
| 21 | 1 | 110/8 |
| 22 | 18 | 128/8 |
| 23 | 0 | 128/8 |
| 24 | 8 | 136/8 |
| 25 | 1 | 137/8 |
| 26 | 1 | 138/9 |
| 27 | 0 | 138/10 |
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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