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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
20 Sept 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Brendan Taylor · Brad Evans0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brendan Taylor · b Brad Evans | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 160.00 |
 Travis Headcaught · RP Burl · Brad Evans1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RP Burl · b Brad Evans | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Cooper Connollybowled · Graeme Cremer 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Graeme Cremer | 21 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 53.85 |
 Josh Inglisbowled · Sikandar Raza11 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sikandar Raza | 103 | 102 | 11 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 10% to 91% during the match (Australia: 9% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 100.98 |
 Alex Careycaught · Wesley Madhevere · Brad Evans5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wesley Madhevere · b Brad Evans | 34 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 113.33 |
|---|
 Matt Renshawbowled · Wesley Madhevere0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wesley Madhevere | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Oliver Peakelbw · Sikandar Raza1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sikandar Raza | 19 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 59.38 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettlbw · Graeme Cremer 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Graeme Cremer | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 36* | 44 | 2 | 1 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Adam Zampacaught · Brian Bennett · Brad Evans0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Brad Evans | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Spencer Johnsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blessing Muzarabani1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 4.90 | 7 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 4 | 4.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Ernest Masuku0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 7.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Graeme Cremer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 5.89 | 0 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Madhevere0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.5 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 5.83 | 3 | 0 |
1-20 (Travis Head, 1.4) · 2-25 (Mitchell Marsh, 3.1) · 3-77 (Cooper Connolly, 12.5) · 4-162 (Alex Carey, 25.5) · 5-176 (Matt Renshaw, 28.5) · 6-203 (Oliver Peake, 35.4) · 7-206 (Xavier Bartlett, 36.4) · 8-227 (Josh Inglis, 41.1) · 9-245 (Adam Zampa, 45.2)
Recorded target: 272 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 25/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 29/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 41/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 47/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 67/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 81/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 87/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 102/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 105/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 114/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 121/3 |
| 21 | 9 | 130/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 135/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 138/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 147/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 154/3 |
| 26 | 8 | 162/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 167/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 172/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 177/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 179/5 |
| 31 | 5 | 184/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 186/5 |
| 33 | 11 | 197/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 200/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 203/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 204/6 |
| 37 | 7 | 211/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 213/7 |
| 39 | 6 | 219/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 222/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 227/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 232/8 |
| 43 | 5 | 237/8 |
| 44 | 5 | 242/8 |
| 45 | 3 | 245/8 |
| 46 | 5 | 250/9 |
| 47 | 2 | 252/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 255/9 |
| 49 | 8 | 263/9 |
| 50 | 9 | 272/9 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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