**Newlands, Cape Town**
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SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusDurban's Super Giants

6 Feb 2024 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 51 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs157/8 Durban's Super Giants19.3 overs106/10 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 50%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Durban's Super Giants is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Durban's Super Giants: 0% to 62%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.5: M Jansen to T de Zorzi, T de Zorzi out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 42% to 54%.
2nd inns 3.1: OEG Baartman to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 53% to 68%.
2nd inns 3.5: OEG Baartman to JT Smuts, JT Smuts out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 70% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.