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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Nepal Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2024/25 · Women
4 Feb 2025 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Thailand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Thailand started on 81%; Thailand batted first.
Thailand's chances ranged from 47% to 98% during the match (Nepal: 2% to 53%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 4 Feb 2025, Thailand played Nepal at Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur. Recorded result: Thailand won by 5 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.