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West Indies Women tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Women
21 Apr 2024 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 42%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alibowled · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chinelle Henry | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Sidra Ameenlbw · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 50 | 70 | 4 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Bismah Maroofcaught · Hayley Matthews · Karishma Ramharack3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Karishma Ramharack | 65 | 105 | 3 | 0 | 61.90 |
| Sadaf Shamascaught · Afy Fletcher · Karishma Ramharack 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Afy Fletcher · b Karishma Ramharack | 9 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 52.94 |
| Nida Darrun out · Rashada Williams, Karishma Ramharack · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 2% to 67% during the match (West Indies: 33% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 15 |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 83.33 |
| Aliya Riazlbw · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Fatima Sanalbw · Karishma Ramharack 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
| Najiha Alvicaught · Hayley Matthews · Chinelle Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Chinelle Henry | 25 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 89.29 |
|---|
| Tuba Hassanlbw · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Hayley Matthews | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Umm-e-Hanilbw · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chinelle Henry | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 12 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 21 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shamilia Connell1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Chinelle Henry1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 1 | 37 | 3 | 4.19 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 2 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 10 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 48 | 3 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (Muneeba Ali, 1.3) · 2-91 (Sidra Ameen, 20.4) · 3-106 (Sadaf Shamas, 25.1) · 4-128 (Nida Dar, 29.3) · 5-140 (Aliya Riaz, 32.5) · 6-165 (Fatima Sana, 37.2) · 7-196 (Bismah Maroof, 41.5) · 8-198 (Tuba Hassan, 43.2) · 9-201 (Umm-e-Hani, 44.1) · 10-223 (Najiha Alvi, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 32/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 47/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 56/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 63/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 66/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 73/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 75/1 |
| 19 | 9 | 84/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 90/1 |
| 21 | 1 | 91/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 93/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 95/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 102/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 106/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 27 | 8 | 114/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 120/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 126/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 129/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 133/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 139/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 143/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 150/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 153/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 159/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 161/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 167/6 |
| 39 | 12 | 179/6 |
| 40 | 5 | 184/6 |
| 41 | 6 | 190/6 |
| 42 | 7 | 197/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 197/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 201/8 |
| 45 | 5 | 206/9 |
| 46 | 2 | 208/9 |
| 47 | 5 | 213/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 216/9 |
| 49 | 7 | 223/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bismah Maroof: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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