**The County Ground, Chelmsford**
Photo: Paul Williams from United Kingdom
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GloucestershireversusMiddlesex

18 Jul 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 10 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs179/8 Middlesex20.0 overs169/7 The County Ground, Chelmsford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 55%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Middlesex is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Middlesex: 0% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.6: DA Payne to JL du Plooy, six by JL du Plooy. Middlesex up from 41% to 60%.
2nd inns 16.1: BJ Webster to JLB Davies, JLB Davies out. Gloucestershire up from 40% to 55%.
2nd inns 17.2: MD Taylor to JB Cracknell, JB Cracknell out. Gloucestershire up from 69% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.