**McLean Park, Napier**
Photo: Ovalise
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

Central DistrictsversusWellington

8 Jan 2024 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Wellington won by 4 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs158/7 Wellington19.1 overs160/6 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 47%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 1% to 68% during the match (Wellington: 32% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.5: NG Smith to BL Wiggins, BL Wiggins out. Wellington up from 53% to 66%.
2nd inns 3.2: BJ Small to DP Conway, DP Conway out. Central Districts up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 7.3: JR Lennox to NF Kelly, NF Kelly out. Central Districts up from 47% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts158/7 Wellington160/6

Innings 1