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Photo: A Cricket Premi
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New Zealand Women tour of India · 2024/25 · Women
29 Oct 2024 · ODI
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 31%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batesrun out · Yastika Bhatia, Jemimah Rodrigues · Renuka Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Yastika Bhatia, Jemimah Rodrigues | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Georgia Plimmercaught · Deepti Sharma · Priya Mishra 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Deepti Sharma · b Priya Mishra | 39 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 58.21 |
| Lauren Downcaught · Yastika Bhatia · Saima Thakor 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yastika Bhatia · b Saima Thakor | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Sophie Devinebowled · Priya Mishra2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Priya Mishra | 9 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 81.82 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (India: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Radha Yadav · b Deepti Sharma |
| 86 |
| 96 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 89.58 |
 Maddy Greenrun out · Yastika Bhatia, Jemimah Rodrigues · Saima Thakor2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Yastika Bhatia, Jemimah Rodrigues | 15 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 78.95 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazecaught and bowled · Deepti Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 25 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 51.02 |
|---|
| Hannah Rowelbw · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Deepti Sharma | 11 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 61.11 |
|---|
 Lea Tahuhunot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 24* | 14 | 2 | 1 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Eden Carsoncaught · Radha Yadav · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Radha Yadav · b Renuka Singh | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Fran Jonasrun out · Saima Thakor · Saima Thakor 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Saima Thakor | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 4 | 0 |
| Saima Thakor1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 4.47 | 1 | 0 |
| Priya Mishra1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 39 | 3 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Radha Yadav0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 3 | 1 |
 Harmanpreet Kaur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Suzie Bates, 6.2) · 2-25 (Lauren Down, 7.1) · 3-36 (Sophie Devine, 10.4) · 4-66 (Georgia Plimmer, 18.5) · 5-88 (Maddy Green, 23.3) · 6-152 (Izzy Gaze, 38.4) · 7-199 (Brooke Halliday, 45.3) · 8-210 (Hannah Rowe, 47.3) · 9-219 (Eden Carson, 48.4) · 10-232 (Fran Jonas, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 31/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 35/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 36/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 41/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 46/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 46/3 |
| 15 | 0 | 46/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 64/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 66/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 71/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 77/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 81/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 88/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 88/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 89/5 |
| 26 | 6 | 95/5 |
| 27 | 4 | 99/5 |
| 28 | 4 | 103/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 106/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 108/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 114/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 118/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 123/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 126/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 135/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 142/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 143/5 |
| 38 | 9 | 152/5 |
| 39 | 0 | 152/6 |
| 40 | 4 | 156/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 161/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 162/6 |
| 43 | 14 | 176/6 |
| 44 | 10 | 186/6 |
| 45 | 7 | 193/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 200/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 208/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 216/8 |
| 49 | 10 | 226/9 |
| 50 | 6 | 232/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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