South AfricaversusCanada

9 Feb 2026 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 57 runs

South Africa20.0 overs213/4 Canada20.0 overs156/8 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%South Africa52%Canada

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Canada rate stronger than South Africa (1,586 vs 1,572 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 45%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Canada is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

6.5: DS Bajwa to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Canada up from 29% to 38%.
2nd inns 0.1: L Ngidi to DS Bajwa, DS Bajwa out. South Africa up from 67% to 79%.
2nd inns 2.3: L Ngidi to YS Samra, YS Samra out. South Africa up from 71% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa213/4 Canada156/8

Innings 2

Canada

156/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Canada batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilpreet Bajwacaught · Quinton de Kock · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Quinton de Kock · b Lungi Ngidi	0	1	0	0	0.00
YS Samracaught · Quinton de Kock · Lungi Ngidi 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Quinton de Kock · b Lungi Ngidi	12	8	3	0	150.00
Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Tristan Stubbs · Corbin Bosch 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Corbin Bosch	64	49	7	1	130.61
Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Kagiso Rabada · Lungi Ngidi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kagiso Rabada · b Lungi Ngidi	4	3	1	0	133.33
Shreyas Movvabowled · Kagiso Rabada 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kagiso Rabada	9	11	2	0	81.82

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	4	7.75	0	0
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	7	0
Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	3	2
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	1	0
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	0	7.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	13	17/1
3	9	26/3
4	10	36/3
5	8	44/3
6	6	50/4
7	4	54/4
8	10	64/4
9	8	72/4
10	3	75/4
11	9	84/4
12	12	96/4
13	3	99/4
14	11	110/4
15	10	120/5
16	4	124/5
17	8	132/5
18	6	138/7
19	12	150/7
20	6	156/8

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