ThailandversusSaudi Arabia

26 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 5 wickets

Thailand20.0 overs133/7 Saudi Arabia18.4 overs136/5 West End Park International Cricket Stadium, Doha ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

44%Thailand56%Saudi Arabia

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 2 and Thailand won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Saudi Arabia (1,512 vs 1,491 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 41%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Saudi Arabia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 45% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: Ishtiaq Ahmad to C Chatphaisan, C Chatphaisan out. Saudi Arabia up from 47% to 56%.
5.6: Zain Ul Abidin to Y Saranonnakkun, Y Saranonnakkun out. Saudi Arabia up from 56% to 65%.
2nd inns 1.5: N Salekar to Abdul Waheed, Abdul Waheed out. Thailand up from 28% to 37%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand133/7 Saudi Arabia136/5

Innings 1

Thailand

133/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Akshaykumar Yadavrun out · Abdul Waheed, Manan Ali · Abdul Waheed 7 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Abdul Waheed, Manan Ali	60	51	7	1	117.65
Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Faisal Khan · Ishtiaq Ahmad 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Faisal Khan · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	13	12	2	0	108.33
N Salekarstumped · Sidharth Sankar · Zain Ul Abidin 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sidharth Sankar · b Zain Ul Abidin	3	6	0	0	50.00
Y Saranonnakkuncaught · Faisal Khan · Zain Ul Abidin 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Faisal Khan · b Zain Ul Abidin	1	3	0	0	33.33
Jandre Coetzeecaught · Manan Ali · Waji Ul Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Manan Ali · b Waji Ul Hassan	12	18

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ishtiaq Ahmad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	1	10.67	2
Ahmad Raza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	1
Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	0
Zain Ul Abidin0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	3
Waji Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0
Abdul Waheed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	0	3.50	0
Abdul Wahid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	2	10.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	6	18/0
3	6	24/1
4	8	32/1
5	6	38/1
6	8	46/3
7	6	52/3
8	4	56/3
9	2	58/3
10	3	61/3
11	6	67/3
12	4	71/3
13	7	78/4
14	2	80/4
15	10	90/4
16	11	101/4
17	3	104/4
18	14	118/4
19	5	123/5
20	10	133/7

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