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Photo: John Sutton
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
11 Jun 2025 · T20
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photographRecorded result
Durham started on 54%; Durham batted first.
Durham's chances ranged from 30% to 99% during the match (Derbyshire: 1% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 11 Jun 2025, Durham played Derbyshire at Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street. Recorded result: Durham won by 16 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.