Lahore QalandarsversusIslamabad United

6 Mar 2024 · T20

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lahore Qalandars won by 17 runs

Lahore Qalandars20.0 overs162/7 Islamabad United18.5 overs145/10 Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lahore Qalandars started on 43%; Lahore Qalandars batted first.

Lahore Qalandars’s chance of winning (%) · Islamabad United is the rest

Lahore Qalandars's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (Islamabad United: 0% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: Zaman Khan to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. Lahore Qalandars up from 43% to 61%.
2nd inns 5.4: D Wiese to JM Cox, C Munro out. Lahore Qalandars up from 59% to 79%.
2nd inns 5.6: D Wiese to Imad Wasim, Imad Wasim out. Lahore Qalandars up from 76% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lahore Qalandars162/7 Islamabad United145/10

Innings 1