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Women's T20 Quadrangular Series (in Hong Kong) · 2024/25 · Women
8 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 77%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Milescaught · Wang Huiying · Cai Yuzhi 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wang Huiying · b Cai Yuzhi | 38 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 70.37 |
| Mariko Hillcaught · Jing Yang · Yang Shen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jing Yang · b Yang Shen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Shanzeen Shahzadlbw · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mengting Liu | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Y Daswanirun out · Zi Mei, Mengting Liu · Wang Huiying 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zi Mei, Mengting Liu | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Emma Laicaught · Gong Yuting · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gong Yuting · b Mengting Liu | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| caught · Cai Yuzhi · b Xu Qian |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
| Kary Chancaught · Zi Mei · Cai Yuzhi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zi Mei · b Cai Yuzhi | 12 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| M Bibinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Hiu Ying Cheungnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 14 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yang Shen0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Xu Qian0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Mengting Liu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Wang Huiying0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Cai Yuzhi0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.67 | 2 | 1 |
| Ma Ruike0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 3 | 0 |
1-1 (Mariko Hill, 0.4) · 2-23 (Shanzeen Shahzad, 5.3) · 3-28 (Y Daswani, 6.1) · 4-29 (Emma Lai, 7.2) · 5-33 (Ruchitha Venkatesh, 8.4) · 6-76 (Kary Chan, 16.2) · 7-86 (Natasha Miles, 18.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 28/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 29/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 31/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 33/5 |
| 10 | 8 | 41/5 |
| 11 | 7 | 48/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 57/5 |
| 13 | 1 | 58/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 65/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 74/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 76/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 78/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 83/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 90/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 100/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.