Hong KongversusChina

8 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 32 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs100/7 China19.2 overs68/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

79%Hong Kong21%China

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than China (1,479 vs 1,363 on our results rating)
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 7 and China won 2
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 77%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · China is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

8.4: Xu Qian to Ruchitha Venkatesh, Ruchitha Venkatesh out. China up from 47% to 59%.
2nd inns 1.1: KY Chan to Yang Shen, Yang Shen out. Hong Kong up from 51% to 61%.
2nd inns 2.4: M Wai Siu to Jing Yang, Jing Yang out. Hong Kong up from 61% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong100/7 China68/10

Innings 2

China

68/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

China batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jing Yangbowled · M Wai Siu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Wai Siu	2	12	0	0	16.67
Yang Shenbowled · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kary Chan	1	2	0	0	50.00
Zi Meibowled · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kary Chan	2	6	0	0	33.33
Xu Qianlbw · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kary Chan	2	9	0	0	22.22
Wei Haitinglbw · M Bibi 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b M Bibi	4	7	0	0	57.14
Yan Zuyinglbw · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kary Chan

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Wai Siu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	1	4	2	1.20	0
Kary Chan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	4	2.75	1
M Bibi1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	2	3.50	2
Joyleen Kaur0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	28	1	7.00	1
Ruchitha Venkatesh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	1	2.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/1
3	0	5/2
4	4	9/3
5	2	11/3
6	3	14/5
7	0	14/6
8	12	26/6
9	1	27/7
10	1	28/7
11	6	34/7
12	1	35/7
13	7	42/7
14	1	43/7
15	4	47/7
16	2	49/8
17	8	57/8
18	5	62/8
19	6	68/9
20	0	68/10

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