NottinghamshireversusNorthamptonshire

20 Jun 2025 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 24 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs164/8 Northamptonshire19.2 overs140/10 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 36%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (Northamptonshire: 0% to 82%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.6: Farhan Ahmed to J Broad, J Broad out. Nottinghamshire up from 38% to 52%.
2nd inns 7.2: Farhan Ahmed to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Nottinghamshire up from 57% to 72%.
2nd inns 8.4: CG Harrison to RS Bopara, RS Bopara out. Nottinghamshire up from 71% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire164/8 Northamptonshire140/10

Innings 1