Kandy FalconsversusDambulla Sixers

15 Jul 2024 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kandy Falcons won by 54 runs

Kandy Falcons20.0 overs222/4 Dambulla Sixers20.0 overs168/9 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kandy Falcons started on 52%; Kandy Falcons batted first.

Kandy Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Dambulla Sixers is the rest

Kandy Falcons's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Dambulla Sixers: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

1.1: D Madushanka to LD Chandimal, six by LD Chandimal. Kandy Falcons up from 56% to 62%.
3.2: GS Dinusha to LD Chandimal, LD Chandimal out. Dambulla Sixers up from 43% to 52%.
6.2: MADI Hemantha to Mohammad Haris, Mohammad Haris out. Dambulla Sixers up from 28% to 35%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.