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Photo: Ji-Elle
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
26 Sept 2024 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Tom Blundell · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Tim Southee | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tom Latham, Glenn Phillips | 46 | 109 | 4 | 0 | 42.20 |
15 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Glenn Phillips | 116 | 208 | 15 | 0 | 55.77 |
| caught · William O’Rourke · b Glenn Phillips |
| 88 |
| 185 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 47.57 |
| Kamindu Mendisnot out 16 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 182* | 250 | 16 | 4 | 72.80 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Tom Blundell · Glenn Phillips 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Glenn Phillips | 44 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 55.00 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendisnot out 6 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 106* | 149 | 6 | 3 | 71.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.0 | 1 | 70 | 1 | 3.68 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17.0 | 1 | 81 | 0 | 4.76 | 2 | 2 | |
| 41.0 | 5 | 135 | 0 | 3.29 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mitchell Santner5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 33.0 | 5 | 82 | 0 | 2.48 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 38.0 | 4 | 141 | 3 | 3.71 | 0 | 0 |
| 12.4 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 4.26 | 0 | 0 | |
| Daryl Mitchell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Pathum Nissanka, 1.0) · 2-124 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 39.1) · 3-221 (Dinesh Chandimal, 72.3) · 4-328 (Angelo Mathews, 96.3) · 5-402 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 118.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 10/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 31/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 41/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 59/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 60/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 61/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 66/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 67/1 |
| 19 | 8 | 75/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 77/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 80/1 |
| 22 | 0 | 80/1 |
| 23 | 0 | 80/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 81/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 82/1 |
| 26 | 3 | 85/1 |
| 27 | 2 | 87/1 |
| 28 | 1 | 88/1 |
| 29 | 7 | 95/1 |
| 30 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 31 | 1 | 101/1 |
| 32 | 1 | 102/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 104/1 |
| 34 | 0 | 104/1 |
| 35 | 2 | 106/1 |
| 36 | 9 | 115/1 |
| 37 | 0 | 115/1 |
| 38 | 2 | 117/1 |
| 39 | 7 | 124/1 |
| 40 | 4 | 128/2 |
| 41 | 2 | 130/2 |
| 42 | 6 | 136/2 |
| 43 | 1 | 137/2 |
| 44 | 7 | 144/2 |
| 45 | 5 | 149/2 |
| 46 | 4 | 153/2 |
| 47 | 3 | 156/2 |
| 48 | 6 | 162/2 |
| 49 | 2 | 164/2 |
| 50 | 3 | 167/2 |
| 51 | 1 | 168/2 |
| 52 | 5 | 173/2 |
| 53 | 3 | 176/2 |
| 54 | 2 | 178/2 |
| 55 | 2 | 180/2 |
| 56 | 0 | 180/2 |
| 57 | 3 | 183/2 |
| 58 | 2 | 185/2 |
| 59 | 1 | 186/2 |
| 60 | 4 | 190/2 |
| 61 | 1 | 191/2 |
| 62 | 3 | 194/2 |
| 63 | 0 | 194/2 |
| 64 | 2 | 196/2 |
| 65 | 1 | 197/2 |
| 66 | 9 | 206/2 |
| 67 | 2 | 208/2 |
| 68 | 0 | 208/2 |
| 69 | 3 | 211/2 |
| 70 | 3 | 214/2 |
| 71 | 3 | 217/2 |
| 72 | 2 | 219/2 |
| 73 | 3 | 222/3 |
| 74 | 8 | 230/3 |
| 75 | 1 | 231/3 |
| 76 | 1 | 232/3 |
| 77 | 1 | 233/3 |
| 78 | 7 | 240/3 |
| 79 | 4 | 244/3 |
| 80 | 5 | 249/3 |
| 81 | 0 | 249/3 |
| 82 | 7 | 256/3 |
| 83 | 4 | 260/3 |
| 84 | 12 | 272/3 |
| 85 | 9 | 281/3 |
| 86 | 5 | 286/3 |
| 87 | 9 | 295/3 |
| 88 | 3 | 298/3 |
| 89 | 2 | 300/3 |
| 90 | 6 | 306/3 |
| 91 | 6 | 312/3 |
| 92 | 4 | 316/3 |
| 93 | 1 | 317/3 |
| 94 | 5 | 322/3 |
| 95 | 0 | 322/3 |
| 96 | 6 | 328/3 |
| 97 | 1 | 329/4 |
| 98 | 4 | 333/4 |
| 99 | 10 | 343/4 |
| 100 | 0 | 343/4 |
| 101 | 0 | 343/4 |
| 102 | 1 | 344/4 |
| 103 | 7 | 351/4 |
| 104 | 2 | 353/4 |
| 105 | 5 | 358/4 |
| 106 | 3 | 361/4 |
| 107 | 6 | 367/4 |
| 108 | 0 | 367/4 |
| 109 | 1 | 368/4 |
| 110 | 1 | 369/4 |
| 111 | 1 | 370/4 |
| 112 | 7 | 377/4 |
| 113 | 5 | 382/4 |
| 114 | 3 | 385/4 |
| 115 | 1 | 386/4 |
| 116 | 2 | 388/4 |
| 117 | 8 | 396/4 |
| 118 | 6 | 402/4 |
| 119 | 1 | 403/5 |
| 120 | 2 | 405/5 |
| 121 | 2 | 407/5 |
| 122 | 2 | 409/5 |
| 123 | 4 | 413/5 |
| 124 | 2 | 415/5 |
| 125 | 6 | 421/5 |
| 126 | 0 | 421/5 |
| 127 | 6 | 427/5 |
| 128 | 1 | 428/5 |
| 129 | 2 | 430/5 |
| 130 | 1 | 431/5 |
| 131 | 2 | 433/5 |
| 132 | 0 | 433/5 |
| 133 | 2 | 435/5 |
| 134 | 4 | 439/5 |
| 135 | 6 | 445/5 |
| 136 | 1 | 446/5 |
| 137 | 5 | 451/5 |
| 138 | 1 | 452/5 |
| 139 | 9 | 461/5 |
| 140 | 8 | 469/5 |
| 141 | 5 | 474/5 |
| 142 | 5 | 479/5 |
| 143 | 15 | 494/5 |
| 144 | 8 | 502/5 |
| 145 | 5 | 507/5 |
| 146 | 1 | 508/5 |
| 147 | 5 | 513/5 |
| 148 | 1 | 514/5 |
| 149 | 5 | 519/5 |
| 150 | 2 | 521/5 |
| 151 | 6 | 527/5 |
| 152 | 3 | 530/5 |
| 153 | 5 | 535/5 |
| 154 | 2 | 537/5 |
| 155 | 8 | 545/5 |
| 156 | 2 | 547/5 |
| 157 | 6 | 553/5 |
| 158 | 7 | 560/5 |
| 159 | 11 | 571/5 |
| 160 | 3 | 574/5 |
| 161 | 4 | 578/5 |
| 162 | 6 | 584/5 |
| 163 | 10 | 594/5 |
| 164 | 8 | 602/5 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ajaz Patel: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.