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Germany Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
27 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 42%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Jersey: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analise Merrittlbw · T Araliya 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b T Araliya | 48 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 117.07 |
| Aimee Aikenheadcaught · K Peddrick · S Malwatta 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Peddrick · b S Malwatta | 21 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 67.74 |
| Grace Wetherallrun out · IU Jayamannage, T Araliya · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · IU Jayamannage, T Araliya | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Charlie Milesrun out · Ilenia Sims · Ilenia Sims 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ilenia Sims | 15 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 136.36 |
| Trinity Smithrun out · Ilenia Sims, K Peddrick · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ilenia Sims, K Peddrick | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
| caught · S Malwatta · b D Nanayakkara |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 133.33 |
| Chloe Greechannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Florence Tanguyrun out · EL Bartram, Ilenia Sims · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · EL Bartram, Ilenia Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mia Maguirenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| C Mahamalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Kanankege0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| ECB Moore0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 2 | 0 |
| N Asuramanage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| S Malwatta0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| T Araliya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 1 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-69 (Aimee Aikenhead, 11.1) · 2-78 (Analise Merritt, 12.4) · 3-101 (Grace Wetherall, 15.1) · 4-101 (Charlie Miles, 15.2) · 5-109 (R Bowley, 16.3) · 6-125 (Trinity Smith, 19.1) · 7-126 (Florence Tanguy, 19.3)
Recorded target: 161 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 39/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 46/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 51/0 |
| 10 | 11 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 69/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 72/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 81/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 88/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 98/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 105/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 113/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 119/5 |
| 19 | 6 | 125/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 129/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.