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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
27 Jun 2024 · T20
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 65%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltbowled · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Rishabh Pant · Axar Patel4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Axar Patel | 23 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 153.33 |
 Moeen Alistumped · Rishabh Pant · Axar Patel0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Rishabh Pant · b Axar Patel | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Jonny Bairstowbowled · Axar Patel0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Axar Patel |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Kuldeep Yadav3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav | 25 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 131.58 |
|---|
 Sam Curranlbw · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonerun out · Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav · Axar Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 68.75 |
|---|
 Chris Jordanlbw · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archerlbw · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Jasprit Bumrah | 21 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 140.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidrun out · Suryakumar Yadav · Hardik Pandya0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Suryakumar Yadav | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Reece Topleynot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Jos Buttler, 3.1) · 2-34 (Philip Salt, 4.4) · 3-35 (Jonny Bairstow, 5.1) · 4-46 (Moeen Ali, 7.1) · 5-49 (Sam Curran, 8.1) · 6-68 (Harry Brook, 10.4) · 7-72 (Chris Jordan, 12.2) · 8-86 (Liam Livingstone, 14.5) · 9-88 (Adil Rashid, 15.2) · 10-103 (Jofra Archer, 16.4)
Recorded target: 172 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 39/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 46/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 49/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 53/5 |
| 10 | 9 | 62/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 68/6 |
| 12 | 3 | 71/6 |
| 13 | 2 | 73/7 |
| 14 | 4 | 77/7 |
| 15 | 9 | 86/8 |
| 16 | 14 | 100/9 |
| 17 | 3 | 103/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jonny Bairstow: Mcadge · CC BY-SA 4.0
Moeen Ali: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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