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Hong Kong Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2026 · Women
10 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 85%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 86% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 14%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wei Haitingcaught · Iqra Sahar · Joyleen Kaur 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iqra Sahar · b Joyleen Kaur | 21 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 55.26 |
| Jiaping Lirun out · Joyleen Kaur, S Parker · Joyleen Kaur 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Joyleen Kaur, S Parker | 23 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 57.50 |
| Cai Yuzhicaught · MBA Lamplough · Joyleen Kaur 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MBA Lamplough · b Joyleen Kaur | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
| M Zhubowled · Joyleen Kaur 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Joyleen Kaur | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Wang Huiyingnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Gong Yuting |
| bowled · b Kary Chan |
| 5 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 55.56 |
| Ma Ruikerun out · Joyleen Kaur, Iqra Sahar · Iqra Sahar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Joyleen Kaur, Iqra Sahar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| F Qianlbw · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kary Chan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iqra Sahar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| M Wai Siu1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| S Parker0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Kary Chan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Joyleen Kaur1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
| M Bibi0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 2 | 1 |
1-41 (Wei Haiting, 10.5) · 2-47 (Cai Yuzhi, 12.4) · 3-62 (Jiaping Li, 14.5) · 4-62 (M Zhu, 15.0) · 5-74 (Gong Yuting, 17.5) · 6-75 (Ma Ruike, 18.2) · 7-80 (F Qian, 20.0)
Recorded target: 142 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 31/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 41/0 |
| 11 | 0 | 41/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 43/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 48/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 59/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 62/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 66/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 73/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 74/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 78/6 |
| 20 | 2 | 80/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.