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Asian Games Women's Qualifier · 2026 · Women
30 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 79%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 3% to 93% during the match (Malaysia: 7% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ainna Hamizah Hashimcaught · Anu Kadayat · Rubina Chhetri 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anu Kadayat · b Rubina Chhetri | 18 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Winifred Duraisingamcaught and bowled · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b M Upadhayay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Elsa Hunterbowled · Rubina Chhetri10 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Rubina Chhetri | 48 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 200.00 |
| Mas Elysacaught · R Poddar · M Upadhayay 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Poddar · b M Upadhayay | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
| Mahirah Ismaillbw · Riya Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Riya Sharma |
| 14 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 77.78 |
| Dhanusri Muhunancaught · Rubina Chhetri · Riya Sharma 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rubina Chhetri · b Riya Sharma | 21 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 72.41 |
|---|
| Nur Dania Syuhadabowled · Riya Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Riya Sharma | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Nur Arianna Natsyabowled · Sita Rana Magar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sita Rana Magar | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nur Qalyshanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Wan Julianot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Upadhayay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kunwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Puja Mahato0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Anu Kadayat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Riya Sharma0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 6.67 | 3 | 0 |
 Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.45 | 2 | 0 |
1-1 (Winifred Duraisingam, 0.4) · 2-71 (Ainna Hamizah Hashim, 7.1) · 3-76 (Elsa Hunter, 7.4) · 4-78 (Mas Elysa, 8.1) · 5-115 (Dhanusri Muhunan, 15.4) · 6-116 (Mahirah Ismail, 16.0) · 7-117 (Nur Arianna Natsya, 16.4) · 8-117 (Nur Dania Syuhada, 17.3)
Recorded target: 127 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 11 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 14 | 55/1 |
| 7 | 16 | 71/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 78/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 79/4 |
| 10 | 7 | 86/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 89/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 94/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 100/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 109/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 114/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 117/7 |
| 18 | 2 | 119/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 127/8 |
Elsa Hunter: Servite et contribuere · CC0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
