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Big Bash League · 2025/26 · Men
28 Dec 2025 · T20
Manuka Oval, Canberra · Venue photographRecorded result
Sydney Thunder started on 45%; Sydney Thunder batted first.
Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 40% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Konstasbowled · Mitchell Swepson0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Swepson | 11 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 73.33 |
| Matthew Gilkescaught · Marcus Stoinis · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Marcus Stoinis · b Haris Rauf | 24 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 184.62 |
 David Warnercaught · Campbell Kellaway · Marcus Stoinis0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Campbell Kellaway · b Marcus Stoinis | 10 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 83.33 |
| Cameron Bancroftlbw · Mitchell Swepson 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Swepson | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
| caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Haris Rauf |
| 23 |
| 19 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 121.05 |
 Shadab Khancaught · Hilton Cartwright · Peter Siddle2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hilton Cartwright · b Peter Siddle | 25 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 104.17 |
|---|
 Daniel Samsbowled · Marcus Stoinis0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marcus Stoinis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Chris Greencaught · Tom Rogers · Haris Rauf1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Rogers · b Haris Rauf | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 109.09 |
|---|
| Tanveer Sanghacaught · Tom Rogers · Tom Curran 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Rogers · b Tom Curran | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Reece Topleynot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Ryan Hadleycaught · Sam Harper · Tom Curran 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Harper · b Tom Curran | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Tom Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Peter Siddle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 8.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Swepson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-33 (Matthew Gilkes, 3.5) · 2-39 (Sam Konstas, 5.1) · 3-55 (David Warner, 8.2) · 4-63 (Cameron Bancroft, 9.5) · 5-90 (Sam Billings, 14.0) · 6-103 (Daniel Sams, 15.3) · 7-112 (Shadab Khan, 17.2) · 8-122 (Chris Green, 18.4) · 9-124 (Tanveer Sangha, 19.2) · 10-128 (Ryan Hadley, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 49/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 59/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 64/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 69/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 78/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 81/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 90/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 99/5 |
| 16 | 9 | 108/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 112/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 116/7 |
| 19 | 7 | 123/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 128/10 |
Chris Green: Servite et contribuere · CC0
David Warner: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Konstas: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Daniel Sams: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Billings: M.o.B 68 · CC BY-SA 2.0
Peter Siddle: PrivateMusings · CC BY-SA 2.5
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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