WorcestershireversusNottinghamshire

7 Jun 2025 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Worcestershire won by 25 runs

Worcestershire20.0 overs206/5 Nottinghamshire20.0 overs181/7 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Worcestershire started on 41%; Worcestershire batted first.

Worcestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Nottinghamshire is the rest

Worcestershire's chances ranged from 17% to 100% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 0% to 83%).

Biggest swings

0.3: DR Sams to BL D'Oliveira, BL D'Oliveira out. Nottinghamshire up from 59% to 72%.
1.1: DY Pennington to EJ Pollock, EJ Pollock out. Nottinghamshire up from 72% to 82%.
2nd inns 4.5: JA Duffy to JA Haynes, JA Haynes out. Worcestershire up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Nottinghamshire chose to field
Player of the match: Adam Hose
match referees: WR Smith
reserve umpires: PK Baldwin
tv umpires: Tom Lungley
umpires: James Middlebrook, SJ O'Shaughnessy

Match history & source

On 7 Jun 2025, Worcestershire played Nottinghamshire at Trent Bridge. Recorded result: Worcestershire won by 25 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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