Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

AucklandversusOtago

1 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Otago won by 3 wickets

Auckland20.0 overs151/9 Otago19.4 overs154/7 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Auckland started on 51%; Auckland batted first.

Auckland’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Auckland's chances ranged from 5% to 73% during the match (Otago: 27% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.2: L Delport to DN Phillips, DN Phillips out. Auckland up from 49% to 73%.
2nd inns 14.5: BG Lister to D Foxcroft, D Foxcroft out. Auckland up from 29% to 53%.
2nd inns 17.5: DK Ferns to T Muller, 1 run to T Muller. Otago up from 52% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Otago chose to field
Player of the match: Travis Muller
match referees: TL Anderson
reserve umpires: N Louw
tv umpires: KS Jagannathan
umpires: DJ Walker, PJ Pasco

Match history & source

On 1 Jan 2024, Auckland played Otago at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Otago won by 3 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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