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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
16 Nov 2025 · ODI
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 83%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Campbellcaught · Tom Latham · Kyle Jamieson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Kyle Jamieson | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Will Young · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Mitchell Santner | 29 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 50.00 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Will Young · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Kyle Jamieson | 32 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 47.76 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Rachin Ravindra · Zakary Foulkes2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Zakary Foulkes | 37 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 82.22 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Devon Conway · Kyle Jamieson3 fours · 3 sixes |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 70% to 98% during the match (West Indies: 2% to 30%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Devon Conway · b Kyle Jamieson |
| 55 |
| 61 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 90.16 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Zakary Foulkes · Matt Henry0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Zakary Foulkes · b Matt Henry | 16 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 94.12 |
|---|
| Justin Greavesnot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 38* | 24 | 3 | 1 | 158.33 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 26* | 19 | 1 | 1 | 136.84 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Jamieson1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 52 | 3 | 5.20 | 5 | 0 |
 Matt Henry1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 3 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy2 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 5.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (John Campbell, 2.3) · 2-70 (Alick Athanaze, 20.3) · 3-87 (Keacy Carty, 25.1) · 4-138 (Shai Hope, 34.5) · 5-169 (Roston Chase, 39.2) · 6-209 (Sherfane Rutherford, 45.1)
Recorded target: 270 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 30/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 50/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 52/1 |
| 16 | 0 | 52/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 56/1 |
| 18 | 0 | 56/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 59/1 |
| 20 | 11 | 70/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 77/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 79/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 83/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 87/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 89/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 89/3 |
| 28 | 11 | 100/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 102/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 32 | 11 | 118/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 126/3 |
| 34 | 10 | 136/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 138/4 |
| 36 | 10 | 148/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 155/4 |
| 38 | 1 | 156/4 |
| 39 | 13 | 169/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 172/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 177/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 185/5 |
| 43 | 11 | 196/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 204/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 209/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 215/6 |
| 47 | 10 | 225/6 |
| 48 | 13 | 238/6 |
| 49 | 12 | 250/6 |
| 50 | 12 | 262/6 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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