ZimbabweversusPapua New Guinea

2 Apr 2024 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 32 runs

Zimbabwe20.0 overs136/6 Papua New Guinea20.0 overs104/4 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

63%Zimbabwe37%Papua New Guinea

Why

Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Papua New Guinea (1,554 vs 1,527 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 2 and Papua New Guinea won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 61%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Papua New Guinea is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

0.1: V Buruka to M Mupachikwa, M Mupachikwa out. Papua New Guinea up from 38% to 51%.
2.4: V Buruka to SM Mayers, SM Mayers out. Papua New Guinea up from 45% to 55%.
2nd inns 0.4: J Nkomo to S Jimmy, S Jimmy out. Zimbabwe up from 54% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe136/6 Papua New Guinea104/4

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

136/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Modester Mupachikwacaught · Brenda Tau · V Buruka 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brenda Tau · b V Buruka	0	1	0	0	0.00
Sharne Mayerscaught · Sibona Jimmy · V Buruka 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sibona Jimmy · b V Buruka	1	6	0	0	16.67
Chipo Mugerirun out · Vicky Araa · HJ Thomas 9 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Vicky Araa	66	59	9	0	111.86
Mary-Anne Musondacaught · Isabel Toua · HJ Thomas 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Isabel Toua · b HJ Thomas	24	16	4	0	150.00
Kelis Ndhlovurun out · Sibona Jimmy · Sibona Jimmy 4 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Sibona Jimmy	35	32	4	0	109.38

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
V Buruka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1	0
Sibona Jimmy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	0	0
HJ Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0	0
Vicky Araa0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67	0	1
Isabel Toua0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	1	0
D Lohia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	10	12/1
3	2	14/2
4	8	22/2
5	11	33/2
6	5	38/3
7	6	44/3
8	6	50/3
9	9	59/3
10	3	62/3
11	9	71/3
12	8	79/3
13	5	84/3
14	4	88/3
15	4	92/3
16	11	103/3
17	13	116/3
18	4	120/5
19	11	131/5
20	5	136/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.