AustraliaversusEngland

13 Sept 2024 · T20

Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 3 wickets

Australia20.0 overs193/6 England19.0 overs194/7 Sophia Gardens, Cardiff ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

67%Australia33%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than England (1,780 vs 1,604 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and Australia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 64%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (England: 15% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.1: SA Abbott to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Australia up from 57% to 69%.
2nd inns 3.3: SA Abbott to JM Cox, JM Cox out. Australia up from 70% to 81%.
2nd inns 8.2: MW Short to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Australia up from 61% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia193/6 England194/7

Innings 2

England

194/719.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Sean Abbott · Matthew Short 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Sean Abbott · b Matthew Short	39	23	2	3	169.57
Will Jackscaught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · Sean Abbott 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · b Sean Abbott	12	10	1	0	120.00
Jordan Coxbowled · Sean Abbott 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sean Abbott	0	2	0	0	0.00
Liam Livingstonebowled · Matthew Short 6 fours · 5 sixes	bowled · b Matthew Short	87	47	6	5	185.11
Jacob Bethell

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	1
Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	2
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	2	9.25	1
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	0	15.50	0
Cameron Green0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	1
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	0	9.25	0
Matthew Short0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	5	7.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	11	13/0
3	21	34/0
4	1	35/2
5	13	48/2
6	17	65/2
7	9	74/2
8	4	78/2
9	5	83/3
10	7	90/3
11	15	105/3
12	9	114/3
13	18	132/3
14	20	152/3
15	11	163/3
16	6	169/3
17	4	173/5
18	8	181/5
19	13	194/7

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