SpainversusCroatia

7 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Spain won by 215 runs

Spain20.0 overs290/3 Croatia20.0 overs75/8 La Manga Club Top Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Spain more likely to win

96%Spain4%Croatia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Spain rate stronger than Croatia (1,621 vs 1,258 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Spain won 8 and Croatia won 0
Spain are playing at home in Spain

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Spain started on 95%; Spain batted first.

Spain’s chance of winning (%) · Croatia is the rest

Spain's chances ranged from 96% to 100% during the match (Croatia: 0% to 5%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Jaikumar Thakur to Mohammad Ihsan, four by Mohammad Ihsan. Spain up from 96% to 96%.
1.6: Jaikumar Thakur to C Munoz-Mills, 0 runs to C Munoz-Mills. Croatia up from 4% to 4%.
2.2: A Beresford-Peirse to Mohammad Ihsan, six by Mohammad Ihsan. Spain up from 96% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Spain290/3 Croatia75/8

Innings 2

Croatia

75/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Croatia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Houghtoncaught · D Doyle-Calle · Christian Munoz-Mills 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Doyle-Calle · b Christian Munoz-Mills	31	53	2	0	58.49
Jaikumar Thakurcaught · Mohammad Ihsan · Yasir Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Ihsan · b Yasir Ali	5	11	0	0	45.45
A Beresford-Peirsecaught and bowled · LA Burns 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b LA Burns	6	16	0	0	37.50
Saghar Manzoorstumped · Yasir Ali · LA Burns 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Yasir Ali · b LA Burns	2	6	0	0	33.33
A Razmilicbowled · Mohammad Atif 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mohammad Atif	0	4	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
SJ Hughes-Pinan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	0	3.00	0
Yasir Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	2	1	1.00	1
Mohammad Atif0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	4
Hamza Dar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	1
C Rumistrzewicz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0
LA Burns0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	8	2	2.67	2
D Doyle-Calle0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	2	6.00	5
Christian Munoz-Mills0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	3	1	3.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	1	5/0
3	3	8/0
4	1	9/1
5	1	10/1
6	8	18/1
7	9	27/1
8	3	30/1
9	6	36/2
10	4	40/2
11	1	41/3
12	1	42/4
13	1	43/4
14	5	48/4
15	4	52/4
16	3	55/5
17	6	61/7
18	7	68/7
19	3	71/8
20	4	75/8

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