**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusSunrisers Eastern Cape

25 Jan 2026 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 6 wickets

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs158/7 Sunrisers Eastern Cape19.2 overs162/4 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 43%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Sunrisers Eastern Cape is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 3% to 84% during the match (Sunrisers Eastern Cape: 16% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.3: RL Chase to J Hermann, J Hermann out. Pretoria Capitals up from 50% to 65%.
2nd inns 17.4: GG Peters to MP Breetzke, six by MP Breetzke. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 41% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.1: B Parsons to T Stubbs, six by T Stubbs. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 78% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.