ThailandversusWest Indies

19 Apr 2025 · ODI

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

Thailand46.1 overs166/10 West Indies10.5 overs168/4 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

55%Thailand45%West Indies

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Thailand rate stronger than West Indies (1,473 vs 1,429 on our results rating)

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 52%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 65% during the match (West Indies: 35% to 100%).

Biggest swings

15.3: AA Alleyne to N Boochatham, N Boochatham out. West Indies up from 38% to 48%.
16.5: ASS Fletcher to N Koncharoenkai, N Koncharoenkai out. West Indies up from 48% to 59%.
20.4: ASS Fletcher to N Chaiwai, N Chaiwai out. West Indies up from 62% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.