GloucestershireversusYorkshire

31 May 2026 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 56 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs217/6 Yorkshire17.4 overs161/10 Headingley ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 47%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Yorkshire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Yorkshire: 0% to 59%).

Biggest swings

3.1: MM Ali to Miles Hammond, Miles Hammond out. Yorkshire up from 45% to 56%.
2nd inns 3.6: OJ Price to W Luxton, W Luxton out. Gloucestershire up from 78% to 88%.
2nd inns 10.3: DJM Short to MM Ali, MM Ali out. Gloucestershire up from 80% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire217/6 Yorkshire161/10

Innings 1