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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
14 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Thailand started on 41%; Thailand batted first.
Thailand's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenjin Rabgeycaught · Austin Lazarus · Phanuphong Thongsa 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Austin Lazarus · b Phanuphong Thongsa | 43 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorjibowled · Nopphon Senamontree 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nopphon Senamontree | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
| Sonam Chophelcaught · Austin Lazarus · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Austin Lazarus · b Nopphon Senamontree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Namgang Chejaylbw · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nopphon Senamontree | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Thinley Jamtshostumped · Phiriyapong Suanchuai · Phanuphong Thongsa 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Phiriyapong Suanchuai · b Phanuphong Thongsa | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| Tashi Phuntshobowled · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nopphon Senamontree | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Tshering Tashibowled · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nopphon Senamontree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gakul Ghalleybowled · Mukesh Thakur 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mukesh Thakur | 19 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 86.36 |
|---|
| Anand Mongarretired out · Sarawut Maliwan 0 fours · 0 sixes | retired out | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Tashi Dorjinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Sonam Yesheybowled · Mukesh Thakur 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mukesh Thakur | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mukesh Thakur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Chanchai Pengkumta0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 4 | 0 |
| Nopphon Senamontree1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Phanuphong Thongsa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Sarawut Maliwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Lazarus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, 4.5) · 2-31 (Sonam Chophel, 5.0) · 3-38 (Namgang Chejay, 6.4) · 4-47 (Thinley Jamtsho, 8.0) · 5-57 (Tashi Phuntsho, 10.3) · 6-57 (Tshering Tashi, 10.4) · 7-75 (Tenjin Rabgey, 14.0) · 8-92 (Anand Mongar, 17.1) · 9-95 (Gakul Ghalley, 18.1) · 10-97 (Sonam Yeshey, 18.5)
Recorded target: 135 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 31/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 47/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 51/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 56/4 |
| 11 | 1 | 57/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 62/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 65/6 |
| 14 | 10 | 75/7 |
| 15 | 1 | 76/7 |
| 16 | 2 | 78/7 |
| 17 | 8 | 86/7 |
| 18 | 9 | 95/8 |
| 19 | 2 | 97/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.