SamoaversusCook Islands

Cook Islands more likely to win

Why

• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Cook Islands won 2 and Samoa won 0
• Samoa are playing at home in Samoa
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Cook Islands rate stronger than Samoa (1,376 vs 1,344 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Samoa started on 41%; Samoa batted first.

Samoa's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (Cook Islands: 18% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 2.4: Noah Mead to T Parima, six by T Parima. Cook Islands up from 41% to 46%.
2. 2nd inns 2.5: Noah Mead to T Parima, six by T Parima. Cook Islands up from 46% to 52%.
3. 2nd inns 9.4: D Visser to T Parima, six by T Parima. Cook Islands up from 76% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.