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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
12 Dec 2024 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 38%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Alzarri Joseph | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Soumya Sarkarlbw · Gudakesh Motie6 fours · 4 sixes | lbw · b Gudakesh Motie | 73 | 73 | 6 | 4 | 100.00 |
 Litton Dascaught · Brandon King · Alzarri Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon King · b Alzarri Joseph | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mehedi Hasanrun out · Sherfane Rutherford · Romario Shepherd8 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Sherfane Rutherford |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 95% during the match (West Indies: 5% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 73 |
| 8 |
| 2 |
| 105.48 |
| Afif Hossaincaught · Brandon King · Sherfane Rutherford 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon King · b Sherfane Rutherford | 15 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 51.72 |
|---|
 Mahmudullahnot out7 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 84* | 63 | 7 | 4 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Jaker Alinot out5 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 62* | 57 | 5 | 2 | 108.77 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alzarri Joseph1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Jediah Blades0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 73 | 0 | 12.17 | 1 | 2 |
| Romario Shepherd1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 65 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 6.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Sherfane Rutherford1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 6.17 | 3 | 0 |
1-9 (Tanzid Hasan, 2.2) · 2-9 (Litton Das, 2.4) · 3-145 (Soumya Sarkar, 23.3) · 4-171 (Mehedi Hasan, 29.3) · 5-171 (Afif Hossain, 30.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/2 |
| 4 | 11 | 20/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 24/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 36/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 37/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 46/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 51/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 69/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 72/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 79/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 87/2 |
| 18 | 10 | 97/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 99/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 107/2 |
| 21 | 16 | 123/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 127/2 |
| 23 | 12 | 139/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 145/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 150/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 154/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 159/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 166/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 169/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 171/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 171/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 172/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 178/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 184/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 188/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 193/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 198/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 205/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 214/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 217/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 225/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 233/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 242/5 |
| 44 | 11 | 253/5 |
| 45 | 7 | 260/5 |
| 46 | 2 | 262/5 |
| 47 | 17 | 279/5 |
| 48 | 16 | 295/5 |
| 49 | 16 | 311/5 |
| 50 | 10 | 321/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nasum Ahmed: Cricfrenzy Tube · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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