Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

AucklandversusOtago

6 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Auckland won by 88 runs

Auckland20.0 overs200/6 Otago15.1 overs112/10 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Auckland started on 53%; Auckland batted first.

Auckland’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Auckland's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.4: RK Gulati to MW Chu, MW Chu out. Auckland up from 62% to 76%.
2nd inns 7.2: RK Gulati to LC Johnson, LC Johnson out. Auckland up from 77% to 88%.
2nd inns 8.5: S Dixit to TM Johnson, TM Johnson out. Auckland up from 86% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.