Continental Cup · 2025 · Men

FranceversusMalta

26 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malta won by 6 wickets

France19.5 overs105/10 Malta13.4 overs106/4 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

France more likely to win

81%France19%Malta

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, France rate stronger than Malta (1,482 vs 1,280 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, France won 4 and Malta won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

France started on 80%; France batted first.

France’s chance of winning (%) · Malta is the rest

France's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (Malta: 18% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.4: Mehboob Ali to L Canessane, L Canessane out. Malta up from 28% to 38%.
5.6: Washeem Abbas to Mukhtar Ghulami, Mukhtar Ghulami out. Malta up from 39% to 55%.
6.3: Mehboob Ali to Usman Khan, Usman Khan out. Malta up from 54% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

France105/10 Malta106/4

Innings 1

France

105/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

France batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
G Mckeoncaught · Jaswinder Singh · D Marks 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaswinder Singh · b D Marks	1	6	0	0	16.67
Mustafa Omercaught · Jaswinder Singh · Mohammed Qasim 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jaswinder Singh · b Mohammed Qasim	33	33	3	1	100.00
C Robertsbowled · Mehboob Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mehboob Ali	9	11	1	0	81.82
L Canessanebowled · Mehboob Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mehboob Ali	0	1	0	0	0.00
Mukhtar Ghulamirun out · Imran Ameer · Washeem Abbas 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Imran Ameer	0	8	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mehboob Ali1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	3	2.25	2
D Marks0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	0	29	3	10.24	6
Washeem Abbas0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	0	2.50	3
Jaswinder Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	1
Muhammad Ajmal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	2
Mohammed Qasim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	0
Imran Ameer1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	5	12/1
3	2	14/1
4	16	30/1
5	1	31/3
6	3	34/4
7	3	37/5
8	2	39/5
9	4	43/5
10	8	51/5
11	9	60/5
12	5	65/5
13	2	67/5
14	4	71/6
15	2	73/6
16	2	75/7
17	4	79/7
18	8	87/7
19	10	97/8
20	8	105/10

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