NetherlandsversusScotland

18 May 2024 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 41 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs167/8 Scotland18.1 overs126/10 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Netherlands48%Scotland

Why

Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 6 and Netherlands won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Scotland (1,579 vs 1,575 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 49%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.3: VJ Kingma to MA Jones, MA Jones out. Netherlands up from 72% to 80%.
2nd inns 11.6: DT Doram to RD Berrington, RD Berrington out. Netherlands up from 79% to 88%.
2nd inns 12.6: PA van Meekeren to MA Leask, MA Leask out. Netherlands up from 82% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands167/8 Scotland126/10

Innings 1

Netherlands

167/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittbowled · Gavin Main 5 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Gavin Main	43	31	5	1	138.71
Max O'Dowdbowled · Michael Leask 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Michael Leask	30	30	1	1	100.00
Scott Edwardscaught · Michael Jones · Brad Currie 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Michael Jones · b Brad Currie	13	15	1	0	86.67
Vikramjit Singhcaught · Michael Leask · Mark Watt 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Michael Leask · b Mark Watt	39	18	3	3	216.67
Sybrand Engelbrechtcaught · Brad Currie · Gavin Main 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brad Currie · b Gavin Main	8	8	0	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Brad Currie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0	0
Chris Sole0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	2	11.00	0	0
Gavin Main0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	2	1
Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	1	8.75	1	0
Chris Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0	0
Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	11	17/0
3	7	24/0
4	8	32/0
5	8	40/0
6	9	49/0
7	5	54/0
8	12	66/0
9	4	70/1
10	7	77/1
11	6	83/1
12	4	87/2
13	4	91/3
14	10	101/3
15	10	111/3
16	15	126/3
17	12	138/4
18	8	146/6
19	11	157/6
20	10	167/8

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