Hobart HurricanesversusAdelaide Strikers

13 Nov 2024 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 28 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs191/2 Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs163/3 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 46%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

0.6: ML Schutt to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. Adelaide Strikers up from 54% to 64%.
2nd inns 7.3: LG Smith to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 62% to 74%.
2nd inns 10.3: A Smith to KM Mack, KM Mack out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 78% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes191/2 Adelaide Strikers163/3

Innings 1